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Bayesian Reasoning’s Power to Challenge Religion and Empirically Justify Atheism

Richard Carrier

Vol. 3, No. 1

Summer 2021

Pages: 75-95

DOI: 10.33929/sherm.2021.vol3.no1.04


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Social-Scientific Research

Richard Carrier, Bayes’ Theorem, Bayesian Reasoning, Atheism

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Bayes’ Theorem is a simple mathematical equation that can model every empirical argument. Accordingly, once understood it can be used to analyze, criticize, or improve any argument in matters of fact. By extension, it can substantially improve an overall argument for atheism (here meaning the belief that supernatural gods probably do not exist) by revealing that god apologetics generally operates through the omission of evidence, and how every argument for there being a god becomes an argument against there being a god once you reintroduce all the pertinent evidence that the original argument left out. This revelation further reveals that god apologetics generally operates through the omission of evidence. This paper demonstrates these propositions by illustrating their application with examples.


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